Dale and Mark
Thank you both for very comprehensive and insightful comments. As Dale has mentioned, there are echoes of Brexit. For that reason, perhaps I might share the experience of Brexit in Ireland.
Businesses were as well prepared as Government information sources could make them, but there was still a marked reluctance to make structural and procedural changes. This reluctance was compounded by the political uncertainty – “deal/no deal” that was resolved only at Christmas 2020. Many companies, especially SMEs, entered the full rigours on EU border on 1 January 2021 with little or no preparation. Customs also was poorly prepared at the front line (ports/airports) and there are signs of this factor in the UK at the moment also.
What happened? There was considerable initial disruption at the ports, but this was ironed out fairly quickly. It was followed by a series of changes to administrative rules, as the actual behaviour of traders became apparent to Customs (some sought to use gaps in the system to avoid requirements). At the same time, the reality of a new World began to dawn on traders and they made significant changes. Then the post-clearance checks began, and traders were shocked by the strictness with which the letter of the law was applied. They were more accustomed to the flexibility and understanding often applied to other regulations, where errors can be fixed post-hoc. The long-term adjustments are now coming into place as a result of the outcomes of these Customs checks.
My perception is that the pendulum, initially swinging towards optimism (“all will be well”), has now swung to pessimism (“reduce, restrict, stop”) and is gradually, after 3 years, returning to the centre (“plan, organise”).
As Mark says, the role of the consultant is key, and Ireland’s experience has been that they appear like mushrooms when problems occur. The shortage of thoroughly competent people is a problem, as is the absence of objective measures of competence. Unfortunately this can lead to businesses being suspicious of all consultants. Another issue is the complexity of dealing with Customs issues, generating costs at a level that businesses have not budgeted for and are reluctant to pay.
Overall, interesting times ahead as BTOM rolls out!
